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BusinessModel

Page history last edited by Ulrich Bonne 15 years, 11 months ago

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Small-Plant Economic Viability Simulation, MinneBiz(TM)

The MinneBiz(TM) spread-sheet model consists of 40 inputs (left set of columns, with yellow and orange fields) and 40 calculated outputs (right set of coumns) of which the two most important ones are highlighted in blue. The model was set up in reference to a large "biomass-to-liquids" (BTL) plant producing 30,000,000 gal/year, at a capital cost of 3 $/(gal/y).

 

The example shown below is for a small plant with a production of only 150,000 gal/year or 25 gal/h. The orange fields highlight the main additional parametric changes characterizing the small plant, relative to the large plant, which then result in the parameters listed on the right side.

 

  BUSINESS MODEL TO COMPUTE PLANT COST IN $/(GAL/Y) & FUEL COST IN $/GAL
                                               INPUTS                                                             OUTPUTS
3 Capacity in gal/h 25   3 Ref./Small Plant size ratio 150
4 Up-Time in h/year 6000   4 Mass prod.cost saving factor 0.1296
5 Ref. Plant size in gal/y 30,000,000   5 BM plant cost in $/(gal/y) 2.911
6 Ref. Plant cost in $/(gal/y) 3   6 BM plant cost in $ 582,197
7 Land cost in $/acre 4500   7      Payment w/interest per $/year 117,198
8 Number of plants produced 2,000   8 BM feedsock in tons/y 1762
9 Fcty assembly saving factor 2.7   9                     in lbs/h 587
10 Years to pay loan in years 8   10                     in dense ft3/y 320,315
11 Interest on loan in %/y 12   11 Yield in gal/ton (for listed % Eff) 85.1
12 Profit in % of fuel sales 10   12 Total cost feedstk & prd.trans.,$/ton 7.43
13 Economy of plant scale, power 0.6   13 Number of people to run plant/shift 0.497
14 Learning curve in %/doublg.  83   14 Cost of ethanol in $/gal - feedstk 0.0872
15 BM feedst.cost in $/ton 0   15    - Plant labor ~(Q/Qr)^0.63/3, $/gal 0.5959
16 Include BM transp.cost: 0=N,1=Y 1   16    - amortization in $/gal 0.7813
17 Plant op.labor cost in $/h/shift 30   17    - profit in $/gal 0.1464
18 BM harvest in tons/acre 3.5   18    - maintenance, insur'ce, prp.tax 0.0185
19 Distribution in % of mfct. cost 20   19    - distribution 0.3259
20       20                  Total in $/gal 1.9553
21 BM energy conv.eff in % 35   21    - incl. BioMax25 Electr. $/kWh 0.0342
22 BM LHV in Btu/lb 9200   22 Total ethanol produced, million gal/y 300
23 Ethanol LHV in Btu/gal 75,637   23 Total manufactg. assets in $ 2,328,788,512
24 Ethanol density in lb/gal 6.549   24 Total number plants needed 1,072,808
25 All US waste BM, bill tons/y 1.89   25 Years to achieve 25% saturation 134
26 Density of pell.stover in lb/ft3 11   26 Total US potential in bill.gal eth/y 161
27       27 CO2 emiss. redution of total E in % 11.8
28 Num.Small MN plants in oper'n. 30,000   28 CO2 em.redution of gasoline E in % 35.5
29 MN factory labor value add in % 30   29 Total cost of the loan in $ 937,583
30 MN factory labor cost in $/h 50   30 MN BM feedstock in million tons/y 52.9
31 MN factory indiv.labor h/year 2000   31 MN fuel production in billion gal/y 4.50
32       32 MN fuel gross revenue in B$/y 8.80
33 Cost of truck fuel in $/gal 3   33 MN factory(val.added)sales in B$/y 1.16
34 Time to load and unload BM, h 1   34 MN jobs - Fuel prod. + distribution 33,000
35 Truck BM capacity in tons 5   35         - Plant product.+ servcg.in $/y 11,644
36 Trucking cost prod./feedst., ratio 0.1   36    - Average gross pay/SP-job in $/y 90,000
37 Truck cost + 50% interest in $ 110,000   37 3xMax.radial BM-plant dist. in miles 1.51
38 Truck life in miles 200,000   38 Truck average speed in miles/h 21.2
39 Truck SP average speed, miles/h 20   39 Cost of feedstock transport in $/ton 7.21
40 Truck mileage in miles/gal 4   40 Cost of product transport in $/ton 0.21
         TL-07-Plant-Business-Model, Rev. 8, U.Bonne, 5-Nov-07 

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